We lost the head and Shoulders target of 1,13 with the violation of the neckline last week, but we still have the 55 moving average holding the upside of the prices with a target to the 200 moving average in the next couple of weeks.
The pair is still consolidation for one last time befere it resumes the down trend to its target of 1,13
As stated a couple of weeks ago, EURUSD retested the confluence of resistance levels in the 1.1860-1.1870 area, however the downtrend remains intact and we continue to target the 200 day moving average neighorhood which sits at 1.1220. – This next move lower should help bring the pair slightly more in line with curve spreads, the correlation of which broke earlier in July this year.
Weekly momentum is very stretched here. It is more stretched than it was last year when EURUSD peaked. Lower levels on the pair from here will lead the momentum to cross back down.