We lost the head and Shoulders target of 1,13 with the violation of the neckline last week, but we still have the 55 moving average holding the upside of the prices with a target to the 200 moving average in the next couple of weeks.
We have break the wedge pattern a couple of weeks before and now we have the possibility of forming a head & shoulders pattern with a target of 108 initially
The pair is still consolidation for one last time befere it resumes the down trend to its target of 1,13
In this chart we can see that we are about to break the trend line that holds the correction of the price, and that we are going to see lower levels in the months to come.
As stated a couple of weeks ago, EURUSD retested the confluence of resistance levels in the 1.1860-1.1870 area, however the downtrend remains intact and we continue to target the 200 day moving average neighorhood which sits at 1.1220. – This next move lower should help bring the pair slightly more in line with curve spreads, the correlation of which broke earlier in July this year.
NZDUSD confirmed a bearish break last week with the close below the August low and the 200 day moving average. There has been good downside follow through so far, the key level to watch is the break of the channel and close below 0,69 with a target of 0,46 over the next couple of years. (long term trade)
Weekly momentum is very stretched here. It is more stretched than it was last year when EURUSD peaked. Lower levels on the pair from here will lead the momentum to cross back down.